Accuracy of Three pointers in matches (2015-12-18 10:34:15)

Three pointers' accuracy is one of the most discussed places in match engine. Therefore we decided to analyze this issue once again and provide more information for game’s members.

In many seasons match engine was adjusted lots of times. Some areas of match engine were changed few times and they operated based on different principles. Three pointers’ accuracy is no exception.

At first match engine was developed so that matches’ results would be as realistic as possible. The main goal was to make match statistics and events in court to be very realistic. Everywhere in match engine (just like in reality) luck was an important factor. Accurate and inaccurate three pointers because of luck helped to ensure that match statistics is similar to statistics in reality. However, big impact of luck quite often influenced the result of the match, too. Therefore game’s members often asked to decrease the influence of luck.

In 40th season new system of Matches LIVE was included. At the same time we changed the direction of match engine’s development. Since 40th season match engine is adjusted not to give “more beautiful” statistics but to be more clear and to give more measures for teams' managers to influence result of match.
Since then more information is given in match chronology so that managers could easily understand what is going on during match. Every time match engine is updated we try to include more clarity. Therefore now next to each shot there is information about player in defence, shooting situation, players skills’ ratio and shot quality (more information about them may be found here: http://www.bballzone.net/forum/shooting-situation-skills-and-shot-quality-ratios-t11427.html). Many new chronology events have been included. The new events help to understand impact of coach, tiredness, home advantage, also shows the type of foul and etc.

Also lately match engine was developed so that the influence of luck would be decreased. As the impact of luck is smaller, the impact of players’ skills naturally became bigger. The difference is very obvious in three pointers’ accuracy. Though such current situation is in the game already for quite a few seasons, teams’ managers still avoid training players’ defensive skills. Because of this reason average three pointers’ accuracy doesn’t decrease. Earlier game’s members used to complain about too big influence of luck, lately a lot of complaints are about too high three pointers’ accuracy. We do not plan to reduce three pointers’ accuracy by decreasing influence of defensive skills and increasing influence of luck. Therefore if you’d like to decrease opponent’s accuracy of three pointers, we can only recommend to pay attention not only to shooters but also to defensive type players.

Below we present statistics from this (50th) season’s matches. Statistics is taken from three pointers that are shot by players with 3PT skill equal to 10 or bigger and when opponent is using man-to-man defence.
Total number of such shots ~7500
Average 3PT skill of shooter: 10.4
Average ‘Contesting shots’ skill of player in defence: 5.5
 

‘Contesting shots’ skill 
of player in defence
3PT accuracy
2 30/40 75%
3 363/566 64%
4 1006/1683 60%
5 1024/1856 55%
6 719/1293 56%
7 430/998 43%
8 238/600 40%
9-12 122/386-31%

Though the result of shot is influenced by many criteria, three pointers’ accuracy dependence from ‘Contesting shots’ skill is obvious. When player in defence has similar defensive skill to shooter’s shooting skill, three pointers’ accuracy is appropriate. As influence of luck is decreased, it shouldn’t be surprising that three pointers’ accuracy is quite high when shooting against twice weaker player.

We posted this article because we want to help game’s members to understand better which direction match engine will be developed in and we expect that teams’ managers will finally pay attention to defensive type players.

If game’s members wish, we could also present articles of this type in the future - review and explain places that raise many questions to users.


 
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Lithuania 4.4 World league 4.8 a-ramune -- Game's news: Accuracy of Three pointers in matches -- 2015-12-18

Information about 3-pointers' accuracy and direction that match engine's development will follow. -- (Translate) (Translate EN)
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Show hidden replies: 23
Italy 1.1 World league 2.2 zio bra -- 2015-12-20
Darius: this engine have too many factor so work on for keep games with usual results, i really not like that, if a game is much stronger or set better his option he deserve to win with big advantage, all factors so influence the games that not are in settings are the ruin for the game... if settings are for 200-0 game have to go 200-0 not differently, this things fake analisys, fake numbers you post about 3pt % and only confuse who make settings, illude bad team and pisst who is stronger and see no sense things happen... and not talk about reality because this game is really far from reality, here be taller make you a better shooter from long distance, be short make you a bad shooter whatever are your skills -- (Translate) (Translate EN)
del + +1
Italy 1.1 World league 2.2 zio bra -- 2015-12-20
Darius: this engine have too many factor so work on for keep games with usual results, i really not like that, if a game is much stronger or set better his option he deserve to win with big advantage, all factors so influence the games that not are in settings are the ruin for the game... if settings are for 200-0 game have to go 200-0 not differently, this things fake analisys, fake numbers you post about 3pt % and only confuse who make settings, illude bad team and pisst who is stronger and see no sense things happen... and not talk about reality because this game is really far from reality, here be taller make you a better shooter from long distance, be short make you a bad shooter whatever are your skills -- (Translate) (Translate EN)
del + +0
Lithuania 3.3 World league 3.3 Partizanas -- 2016-03-28
Aš manau, kad lentelėje pateikti pataikymo procentai yra per dideli ir nerealistiški. Reiktų juos sumažinti mažiausiai 5, o gal net 10 proc. -- (Translate) (Translate EN)
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